Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Refinances are up
While doing loans in Hemet, CA we have experienced an increase in volume of refinance mortgages. Even though values remain constantly strained by perpetual foreclosures some people have enough equity to succesfully complete a refinance transaction. Rates have been close to all time lows for a long enough period of time for the word to get out and for our customers to react. I still have more clients in Van Nuys then in Hemet but either way the phone is starting to ring. This came out today on MortgageNewsDaily.com.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 15.5 percent compared with the previous week. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.4 percent
The Refinance Index increased 17.2 percent from the previous week. The four week moving average is up 1.8 percent for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.1 percent of total applications from 68.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average is down 2.7 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.95 percent from 5.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.99 from 1.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.27 percent from 4.35 percent, with points increasing to 1.36 from 1.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed-rate observed in the survey since the week ending November 27, 2009. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.80 percent, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics said:
“Mortgage applications rebounded last week, particularly refis, as rates dropped back below 5 percent.... Purchase activity remains subdued, with application volumes remaining within the narrow range seen in the last few months.
Information provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association as reported on Mortgage News Daily.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 15.5 percent compared with the previous week. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.4 percent
The Refinance Index increased 17.2 percent from the previous week. The four week moving average is up 1.8 percent for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.1 percent of total applications from 68.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average is down 2.7 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.95 percent from 5.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.99 from 1.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.27 percent from 4.35 percent, with points increasing to 1.36 from 1.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed-rate observed in the survey since the week ending November 27, 2009. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.80 percent, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics said:
“Mortgage applications rebounded last week, particularly refis, as rates dropped back below 5 percent.... Purchase activity remains subdued, with application volumes remaining within the narrow range seen in the last few months.
Information provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association as reported on Mortgage News Daily.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
MBS News
The 8:15 release of the Dec ADP private jobs report was more losses than what was expected; private job losses were expected to be 75K but were down 84K. Markets didn't make much of it however; its the BLS report coming this Friday that overrides the ADP data. Historically ADP estimates have been more bearish than what the BLS data shows. Markets are still looking for job losses to be negligible in Dec with seasonal hirings boosting and distorting the data.
At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note -3/32, mortgage prices +1/32 and the DJIA index -2 points. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -15, the 10 yr note -1/32 and mortgage prices unchanged.
At 10:00 the Dec ISM services sector data; expectations were for the overall index to increase from 48.7 to 50.5, it hit at at 50.1. New orders component 52.1 frm 55.1, prices pd at 58.7 frm 57.8 and the employment index increased to 44.0 frm 41.6. Any reading over 50 is expansion, under 50 contraction. The reaction generated slight selling in the mortgage markets and a bounce in the stock indexes.
Earlier this morning, the MBA mortgage applications; for the weeks ending December 25, 2009 and January 1, 2010. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 22.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending January 1, 2010, this index increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Both weeks’ results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas and New Year’s Day holidays. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the Refinance Index decreased 30.5% from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.0% from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index decreased 1.6% and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.6%. The refinance share of mortgage activity for the week ending January 1, 2010 is 68.2%, a decrease from 69.6% for the week ending December 25, 2009.
For the week ending December 25, 2009, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.08% from 4.92%, with points increasing to 1.48 from 1.23 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. For the week ending January 1, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.18% with points decreasing to 1.28. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.57% from 4.34%, with points decreasing to 0.91 from 1.03 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. For the week ending January 1, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.62%, with points increasing to 0.98.
A double dip in 2010? The overwhelming consensus from the majority of analysts and economists----not to mention Wall Street brokers----is that the economy will continue to improve in 2010 and we won't experience a U or W bottom. According to the consensus view, the worst is behind us, jobs will begin to increase and the economy will grow. Well, for many years I used to write our annual forecast for the year about this time of the new year; no more, it is way too sketchy and uncertain to put out a forecast that has little value more than a month or two. With that, what bothers us, and we can't shake it, that the housing sector is not recovering and many are simply ignoring that fact. Foreclosures are not declining, they are increasing and it is now including so-called prime mortgagors. Home values are continuing to decline. Consumers are continuing to pull back on spending (except for Christmas); consumer credit has declined for the each of the past 10 months. As everyone knows, consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP growth, unless there is a sea change in consumer spending and the housing sector decline, the economy isn't likely to grow as the present consensus implies.
48 hours until the employment report for Dec. Every employment report is critical, this one adds even more to the markets as estimates are for non-farm jobs to come in unchanged with no additional losses in jobs. Seasonal hirings according to analysts will overcome more long lasting job losses according to those that know this for sure. Knowing anything for sure when it comes to employment is a formula for disappointment, all one has to do is consider the market volatility when the data is released----always wild swings in equities and interest rates.
Source:TBWS
At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note -3/32, mortgage prices +1/32 and the DJIA index -2 points. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -15, the 10 yr note -1/32 and mortgage prices unchanged.
At 10:00 the Dec ISM services sector data; expectations were for the overall index to increase from 48.7 to 50.5, it hit at at 50.1. New orders component 52.1 frm 55.1, prices pd at 58.7 frm 57.8 and the employment index increased to 44.0 frm 41.6. Any reading over 50 is expansion, under 50 contraction. The reaction generated slight selling in the mortgage markets and a bounce in the stock indexes.
Earlier this morning, the MBA mortgage applications; for the weeks ending December 25, 2009 and January 1, 2010. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 22.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending January 1, 2010, this index increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Both weeks’ results include an adjustment to account for the Christmas and New Year’s Day holidays. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the Refinance Index decreased 30.5% from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.0% from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index decreased 1.6% and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.6%. The refinance share of mortgage activity for the week ending January 1, 2010 is 68.2%, a decrease from 69.6% for the week ending December 25, 2009.
For the week ending December 25, 2009, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.08% from 4.92%, with points increasing to 1.48 from 1.23 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. For the week ending January 1, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.18% with points decreasing to 1.28. For the week ending December 25, 2009, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.57% from 4.34%, with points decreasing to 0.91 from 1.03 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. For the week ending January 1, 2010, the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.62%, with points increasing to 0.98.
A double dip in 2010? The overwhelming consensus from the majority of analysts and economists----not to mention Wall Street brokers----is that the economy will continue to improve in 2010 and we won't experience a U or W bottom. According to the consensus view, the worst is behind us, jobs will begin to increase and the economy will grow. Well, for many years I used to write our annual forecast for the year about this time of the new year; no more, it is way too sketchy and uncertain to put out a forecast that has little value more than a month or two. With that, what bothers us, and we can't shake it, that the housing sector is not recovering and many are simply ignoring that fact. Foreclosures are not declining, they are increasing and it is now including so-called prime mortgagors. Home values are continuing to decline. Consumers are continuing to pull back on spending (except for Christmas); consumer credit has declined for the each of the past 10 months. As everyone knows, consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP growth, unless there is a sea change in consumer spending and the housing sector decline, the economy isn't likely to grow as the present consensus implies.
48 hours until the employment report for Dec. Every employment report is critical, this one adds even more to the markets as estimates are for non-farm jobs to come in unchanged with no additional losses in jobs. Seasonal hirings according to analysts will overcome more long lasting job losses according to those that know this for sure. Knowing anything for sure when it comes to employment is a formula for disappointment, all one has to do is consider the market volatility when the data is released----always wild swings in equities and interest rates.
Source:TBWS
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